Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-08-24 4.119517 4.840790 5.639287 6.587169 7.679970 8.898552 10.358548
2025-08-31 2.896681 3.829922 4.976770 6.482145 8.397594 10.744146 13.826323
2025-09-07 2.280236 3.327598 4.730991 6.730682 9.485025 13.120101 18.250317
2025-09-14 1.803478 2.868763 4.407199 6.758699 10.221772 15.084919 22.367299
2025-09-21 1.464708 2.516156 4.138736 6.776112 10.891979 16.987737 26.587188
2025-09-28 1.212156 2.233823 3.908168 6.784170 11.509835 18.844740 30.915393
2025-10-05 1.124009 2.199779 4.055337 7.394579 13.123146 22.367576 38.142939
2025-10-12 0.991971 2.059021 3.993435 7.634659 14.144650 25.046318 44.299380
2025-10-19 0.882368 1.936207 3.938076 7.867610 15.166868 27.813671 50.861304
2025-10-26 0.766723 1.777270 3.786945 7.896250 15.817088 29.997710 56.628862
2025-11-02 0.642547 1.574681 3.516198 7.652045 15.923168 31.218753 60.806637
2025-11-09 0.526890 1.365888 3.196493 7.258547 15.683918 31.770019 63.802613
2025-11-16 0.450175 1.232779 3.018996 7.141510 15.996077 33.422874 69.091496
2025-11-23 0.388360 1.122497 2.873631 7.072763 16.401477 35.305393 75.027928
2025-11-30 0.357713 1.084672 2.887519 7.358231 17.587086 38.847151 84.547595
2025-12-07 0.316676 1.009651 2.799324 7.394343 18.231304 41.348114 92.206518
2025-12-14 0.280504 0.939642 2.710902 7.415261 18.840874 43.831615 100.052264
2025-12-21 0.248687 0.874666 2.623633 7.424719 19.422325 46.306665 108.098508
2025-12-28 0.247011 0.901679 2.785691 8.088121 21.625571 52.515067 124.658796
2026-01-04 0.229404 0.873979 2.792806 8.348944 22.883329 56.734140 137.234984
2026-01-11 0.213121 0.846823 2.796842 8.601916 24.150066 61.086305 150.466960
2026-01-18 0.191613 0.796349 2.723963 8.633021 24.857942 64.211363 161.191409
2026-01-25 0.164613 0.718898 2.555326 8.367873 24.764557 65.439033 167.662936